Méthode de réduction de variance adaptive et robuste pour les vecteurs gaussiens
Event type:
Seminar
Event name:
interne
Start at:
march 30, 2009
Place:
Ensta ( amphi Parmantier ) 14h
Contact:
EMAIL_TEMPLATE
Responsible team:
Title:
Méthode de réduction de variance adaptive et robuste pour les vecteurs gaussiens
Detail:
Adaptive Monte Carlo methods are very efficient techniques designed to
tune simulation estimators on-line. In this work, we present an
alternative to stochastic approximation to tune the optimal change of
measure in the context of importance sampling for normal random
vectors. Unlike stochastic approximation, which requires very fine
tuning in practice, we propose to use sample average approximation and
deterministic optimization techniques to devise a robust and fully
automatic variance reduction methodology. The same samples are used in
the sample optimization of the importance sampling parameter and in
the Monte Carlo computation of the expectation of interest with the
optimal measure computed in the previous step. We prove that this
highly non independent Monte Carlo estimator is convergent and
satisfies a central limit theorem with the optimal limiting
variance. Numerical experiments confirm the performance of this
estimator: in comparison with the crude Monte Carlo method, the
computation time needed to achieve a given precision is divided by a
factor going from 3 to 15.